On-the-ground investigations in Japan by Australian beef advocacy groups are showing that Tokyo supermarket customers are now paying less for the same trays of Australian grassfed beef than supermarket customers here.
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The situation has raised the ire of plenty of cattle producers who believe it signals supermarket price gouging in Australia. There are also concerns it indicates the extent to which long-standing, highly valuable global markets for Australian beef are struggling under economic hardship.
However, economists and meat industry analysts say neither of those conclusions can legitimately be drawn from the comparisons and it's not unusual for Australian beef, at any given time, to sell for more on home soil than in overseas retail.
The Australian Beef Association travelled to Japan to collect data first-hand on the price Australian beef was retailing for. The Australian Cattle Industry Council then assessed the results and suggested the more competitive supermarket landscape in Japan has kept beef prices down in comparison to Australia.
Both organisations are producer groups that operate outside the industry's peak industry councils.
The ABA looked at three products of similar description - stir fry, rump and cubes used in casseroles here and popular in Japan for beef curry.
Stir fry beef that retails in Coles and Woolworths at $20 to $25 per kilogram was selling for the equivalent of $19.80/kg in Japan.
Rump steaks in Coles and Woolworths retailing at $28/kg were the equivalent of $22/kg in Japan.
Cubed beef in Coles and Woolworths at $20/kg was the equivalent of $18.90/kg in Japan.
The ABA's David Byard said trim, quality and presentation were of a higher standard than in Australian supermarkets.
ACIC's John Gunthorpe, formerly a chief executive officer of a large beef processing company which sold to North Asia from both Australia and the USA, said supermarkets in Japan were far less concentrated in their ownership than in Australia.
No single retailer would constitute more than 10pc of the market overall, although in some areas individual operators could command up to 20pc, he said.
"Beef destined for the Japanese consumer is processed in Australia, vacuum packed, shipped by sea halfway across the world at a cost approaching A$1/kg and had a 24.1pc import duty imposed upon it entering Japan," Mr Gunthorpe said.
"Yet, it is sold at lower comparative prices than it is in Australia's major supermarkets.
"This study provides an opportunity to estimate the cost to Australians of our supermarket duopoly."
Economist view
Economists and data analysts said one-off comparisons such as these were rarely robust.
More than a hundred samples, across different regions of both Australia and Japan, where quality was precisely matched, would be required, at the least, to draw any meaningful conclusions about whether Australian beef was cheaper in Japan, they said.
Others in the beef industry, however, said the comparison was only designed to provide an indication or 'snapshot' of the current landscape and held weight for that reason.
Episode 3 analyst Matt Dalgleish said it was not surprising that Australian beef overseas was priced lower than here.
In markets like Japan, Australian beef had to be competitive on a global platform, he said.
Processors supplying both the domestic and export market said Australia was not only beef's single largest market but often the most attractive.
Margins were often better given the lack of transport costs and lack of competition from big, cheap overseas beef producers like Brazil.
Some economists pointed to the Big Mac Index as an indication of how beef was priced according to ability to pay in different markets.
The index, created by The Economist as a measure of purchasing power parity between nations, shows this standard product can be more than four times dearer in some countries.
Mr Dalgleish said a one-off comparison did not demonstrate particular consumers, or suppliers, were getting ripped off but rather just that economies around the the world were different.
"In reality, the quickest and easiest way to bring the price of beef in Australia down would be to open the borders to beef imports but I'm certain the groups who did this analysis are not mounting that argument," he said.