Federal government agencies are developing a drought early warning model which will zero in on the likely vulnerability of farmland in five kilometre square grids across Australia.
The project will combine rainfall, temperature, soil type, crop and pasture production data and weather forecast models to help better predict where drought pressure trouble spots are more likely to emerge, season by season.
The early warning process would revive some of the data strategies previously used to assess areas qualifying for federal Exceptional Circumstances funding under past drought support programs, although would not represent a return to EC-style drought triggers.
Coincidentally, the drought preparation forecasting initiative comes after a summer of unpredicted wet weather and flooding in many areas, which has left the Bureau of Meteorology copping widespread criticism for its forecasting capabilities.
After a dry winter in much of Australia last year, the BOM's mid-September prediction was for a summer of hot, dry and fire-prone El Nino weather patterns.
Its three month outlook then had to be watered down as other climate patterns triggered cyclonic wet summer conditions in the north and unusually persistent rainy weather in much of southern Australia.
Impact predictor
The planned farm drought predictor project would use BOM's weather monitoring and forecast data, matched with CSIRO and Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries landscape and farm production information.
It would map the impact of current and anticipated weather on productivity, environmental risks and economic conditions at a district level.
"A lot of that agriculturally-specific data stopped being collated in one package after the Exceptional Circumstances program was phased out," said Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics senior economist, Neal Hughes.
Aside from potentially assisting farmers to plan for the coming three to six months, the upgraded drought assessment and monitoring model would help governments, banks, insurance providers and others "a long way from the paddock" to better prepare for what was happening or potentially what could cause hardship in a region.
"It won't replace the on-farm decisions farmers have to make about whether to plant or long-term decisions they might need to consider," Dr Hughes said.
"But it will be relevant in helping farmers and advisors with customised analysis of how much risk they face.
"It's also the kind of information which could be used in drought insurance products.
"It should be particularly useful for those who are trying to inform governments or related services such as rural financial counsellors if potential tough times are looming."
Dr Hughes said since the crippling 2016 to 2020 big dry, federal reviews of drought policies and responses had indicated government programs were not as well prepared as they had been in the prior EC era.
A variety of data previously available to government agencies had not been pulled together and monitored as before.
Although not likely to be launched officially until late this year, Dr Hughes said a drought warning model prototype was soon to be unveiled to test its applications and effectiveness.
BOM under pressure
Acknowledging the past summer had put a lot of pressure on the BOM and scrutiny of its forecast accuracy, Dr Hughes, emphasised long term predictions were inherently difficult.
"The challenge is the BOM is required to look at least three months ahead," he said.
"It has a lot of skills and capacity to handle a month ahead, but farmers need to plan for three, six or 12 months."
He said nobody really had that sort of forecast clarity.
He also noted the BOM was "pretty reliable" with its prediction of a dry 2023 spring, and went into summer with an open-ended assessment on how various climatic influences such as the Southern Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole could impact the El Nino pattern.
"I think the bureau has been unfairly criticised," he said.
ABARES executive director told this month's Outlook 2024 conference there were a number of climate information and forecast products which went "well beyond the headlines".
He urged farmers and others in the sector who monitored weather forecasts and markets to "interrogate the data", including rainfall percentage predictions.
He conceded, however, there were still "some communication issues to deal with".
Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
