A tough season has come to a close for North Queensland cattle traders, with eyes glued to the skies in hopes of an extended wet to break open next year's market.
While Tropical Cyclone Jasper continues its north-ward trajectory, there is hope that more rainfall over the coming month will influence 2024 for the better.
"If we can get a good wet season over the next few weeks into the new year, it will definitely, hopefully set a positive market trend, and I think that also has to fall in other regions so we have that full impact across all markets," Elders branch manager Michael O'Grady said.
"If it doesn't rain in the south, that also has an impact in the northern markets...(so) we're just looking forward to seeing a lot of widespread rainfall around the northern and southern regions, and hopefully that will have a positive impact when the markets open up, in the vendors' favour.
"All industry stakeholders are hoping for a wet wet...and vendors will be hoping for rain across Queensland to see re-stockers come back into the market just to soften those markets if they do open strong."
While a tough season due to dry conditions left many in the industry deflated this year, there is optimism around the tracks for a turn around for a positive market trend in 2024.
"Even the last two weeks you've seen some positive conversations amongst local producers, that's for sure," Mr O'Grady said.
"It definitely changes the mindset when we get a bit of rain, everyone gets a bit excited, and we see the reflection of that in the markets straight away."
While the future is largely unknown, including the prominence of live export, Mr O'Grady says the boats will be back again but at what capacity remains to be seen.
A tough year hasn't dampened spirits across the region just yet.
"We all like to think we're not going to experience the same year we had this year," Mr O'Grady said.
"There has been a lot of talk around next year being more positive and prices heading in the right direction, and that will have a lot to do with how the markets open up, live export, and the domestic market alone."
Prophurst principal and managing director Bram Pollock said a few numbers had been held back this year due to price lulls.
"Numbers have been retained...but if we see the numbers start flowing easier, we will see the market have a bit of a wind back," he said.
"All your big properties will start moving and your northern country and the territory comes online, all will come back on Easter when mustering starts back up and everyone comes back online. Supply and demand.
"I think if New South Wales gets a good wet season...it will put a floor in the market."
Reflecting on the last 12 months, Mr Pollock said there was no way to know how January would have eventuated.
"Who would have thought the market in January would keep going in a downward trend. Usually markets open on an upwards trend to Easter, then traditionally flatten and go the other way," he said.
"But come January this year, the market spiralled down and kept going.
"If this wet weather is short and sharp, people will have to move. It'll go the other way, the downward trend, there's no doubt about it.
"If there's an extended wet season, we'll see some good money getting around. Let's hope for a long wet."
Despite a positive turn-around a fortnight ago, which saw most categories rise by 30-50c/kg, vendors were left scratching their heads after a price drop at the Charters Towers sale on December 13.
In the prime sales, bullocks were quoted 20c easier, heifers and cows were 25c easier, and bulls were 10c easier compared to last week's rates.
Compared to November 29, steers and bullocks up to 500kg dropped 15c/kg, and over 500kg dropped 23c.
Heifers were lighter, averaging 188c for the 440kg category on Wednesday, and 217c for the 540kg category last fortnight.
Cows under 400kg were 20c easier, and the average over 400kg saw a 43c decline.
Bulls under 450kg were 20c easier, but there was a narrow increase in the over 450kg category with a 4c rise.
In the store sales, steers up to 200kg were 24c easier than November 29, 200-300kg were 11c easier, 320-400kg were 5c up, and over 400kg were 3c up.
Mickeys up to 400kg were 9c easier, followed by heifers under 200kg which took a 57c dive.
Heifers between 200-320kg were 6c easier and over 320kg were 11c easier.
"Yesterday's sale leaves a bit unknown about what's happening and how the market will open up," Mr O'Grady said.
"Everyone was surprised to be honest, given the seasonal break we're having at the moment. There's a lot of unknown left with a lot of people.
"I think everyone was hoping for a positive outcome after two weeks ago when we had a terrific turn around price wise for the first time in 12 months...the eastern cattle indicator jumped 20c in the last lot of rain.
"There were some other variables with processes shutting down for Christmas...there's definitely a lot of unknown on what's going on."
Nutrien Harcourts agent Shane Stretton said while the quality was "very mixed", with some "average", "rough around the edges" lines in the lighter cattle, there were some good quality and strong returns in the feeder weights.
Feeder weights were on par with last fortnight's sale, but other categories saw a downturn, with heifers dropping by 25c/kg, with younger light cattle back 20-30c/kg.
"Export and cattle to go into feedlots, anything we class as feeder over 300kg was very strong or strong similar to last fortnight, and any of the cattle under those weights, down into your weaners, were probably back up to...roughly 30c/kg in some places," he said.
Mr Stretton was also at a loss as to why the market took a slump, but said it could have been due to pre-preemptive action ahead of Cyclone Jasper.
"I was wondering whether it was because there was a hint of the cyclone around that some buyers were a little nervous about getting their cattle back into the paddock with the chance of rain," he said.
"Though the cyclone is a bit north of us, it shouldn't have worried them, but there might have been the thought of not getting them in.
"(And) on a whole, the meat works...was down a little bit due to most of the meat works got their kill sorted for this year, and most are only killing for another couple of days."
There was a mixed crowd at the sale, with strong competition between multiple feedlots, and a live export looking to feed to Darwin.
"Some went to the Darling Downs, some went down into the central Queensland area," he said.
Mr Pollock said there were hopes that lighter cattle would return more money at the sale, but the market fell flat.
"Who could have read that? None of us," he said.
"At the end of the day, the crystal ball is broken. I thought the market yesterday would kick hard but it didn't happen."
