There are signs the 'moderate' El Nino will weaken through autumn

The El Nino has already been classed as around "moderate strength" and is expected to peak over Christmas.

The Bureau of Meteorology says El Nino's drying weather influence will continue into at least the early autumn.

The bureau's scan of international climate models shows the El Nino likely to weaken from April with the El Nino indicator heading slowly back towards neutral territory.

The World Meteorological Organisation said the El Nino "is anticipated to have substantial and widespread effects on weather patterns through much of the tropics and beyond at least until end of 2023 and first quarter of 2024".

"Based on model predictions and expert assessment, there is a very high likelihood of the El Nino event continuing during November 2023-April 2024.

"Drawing from historical warm episodes and the most recent long-range forecasts, the gradual weakening of the El Nino is anticipated during the 2024 northern hemisphere spring (southern hemisphere autumn)," the WMO said.

The US National Weather Service said there was now a 62 per cent chance the El Nino could continue into April-June next year.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist in the tropical Pacific and the atmospheric indicators are also consistent with El Nino conditions.

"The 2023 El Nino event is tracking around moderate strength with SSTs (sea surface temperatures) forecast to remain above El Nino thresholds into the early autumn 2024," the bureau said.

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole event also continues and is currently tracking at strong levels, the bureau said.

"All international climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest the positive IOD is likely to ease in December, slightly later than usual."

Typically, the combination of El Nino and the positive phase of the IOD favours below-average rainfall for much of tropical Australia at this time of year.

The long-range forecast for Australia indicates December to February rainfall is likely to be below average across much of northern Queensland, the NT, Tasmania, southern and central SA, and north-west and western WA.

Warmer days and nights are very likely almost nationwide.

The "northern rainfall onset" or more than 50mm or more since September has been triggered in large parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia's Kimberley.

The bureau's long range forecast is below average rainfall from December to February across much of northern Australia, including most of the NT, Tasmania, and the west coast of WA.

Despite the El Nino, there have been good falls recorded and rain still falling across isolated areas of central and eastern Australia.

Homebush, between Lightning Ridge and Walgett in NSW recorded 190mm on Sunday.