The driest September in 137 years of records for Lord Howe Island could lead to much warmer and drier conditions across eastern Australia and South Australia until the end of the year and into January, according to a retired CSIRO weather officer.
Peter Nelson, who worked at the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Physics in Melbourne from 1959 to 1993, is one of many interpreting weather signals as another El Nino makes its presence felt.
One of those, Richmond Shire Council mayor John Wharton believes the early season storms some are experiencing in the north west are bringing hope of a decent wet season, despite the El Nino.
He's lived in the region all his life and said the cool early mornings and hot days being experienced in early October were what he called the 'refrigerator effect' - cool air meeting warm winds with moisture the result.
At least one property in the Julia Creek region recorded 20mm this week.
Cr Wharton warned that bushfires might first be the price to pay.
"There were signs like this in the 70s," he said.
"Storms around Melbourne Cup time - every afternoon, bang, up comes the smoke and we'd be out all night fighting them.
"You can handle a fire, if you're well prepared, but a lot of people here under 60 have no experience of them.
"At least people have graders now."
Taking a wider view, Peter Nelson, who has made long range weather forecasts a private hobby since 1968, said Lord Howe Island's 27mm for September could be compared to the last time that amount of rain was recorded for the month, in 1938.
"(That) later lead to much warmer and drier conditions up to early February 1939," he said.
"We had Black Friday bushfires in Victoria, (and) 50 degree temperatures at Wilcannia in January 1939.
"Many other towns recorded maxima up to 48 degrees from Victoria up to Cloncurry in Queensland during the summer of 1938-39.
"Other very dry Septembers at Lord Howe Island were in 1897, 1927, 1972, 2000, 2017 and 2020, and all of them lead to warmer than normal conditions right up to February the next year.
"Two of them, 1927 and 2020 saw above average rainfall in Wangaratta on October, which occurred early this month.
"It did continue relatively dry up to December after these two then January of both 1928 and 2021 were both wetter than average generally."
Sally Gall
Based at Blackall, CW Qld, where I've raised a family, run Merino sheep and beef cattle, and helped develop a region - its history, tourism, education and communications. Get in touch at 0427 575 955 if you've got a story idea for me.
Based at Blackall, CW Qld, where I've raised a family, run Merino sheep and beef cattle, and helped develop a region - its history, tourism, education and communications. Get in touch at 0427 575 955 if you've got a story idea for me.
