A TROPICAL low brewing in the Gulf of Carpentaria is likely to form into a cyclone later this week.
Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Pieter Claassen said the chance of a cyclone forming was increasing as the monsoon trough intensifies over northern Australia.
If it does form it would be named Tropical Cyclone Lucas and would be the third cyclone of the season to form in Queensland waters, following Cyclone Imogen, which formed in the Gulf in early January, and Cyclone Kimi, which meandered along the North Queensland coast without making landfall.
Mr Claassen said it was increasingly likely the tropical low would form into a tropical cyclone later this week.
"Our official tropical cyclone outlook has a moderate chance, so 20 to 50 per cent chance of this low pressure system forming into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday, and if the low pressure system does stay over water beyond that this chance will likely increase as well."
Mr Claassen said the system was expected to be slow moving and travel in an east or south-easterly direction toward Queensland coast.
"Systems that do form in the Gulf of Carpentaria can generally be quite erratic in terms of their movement," he said.
"They're generally slow moving but at the moment the guidance indicates the system will likely move to the east or south-east, but do so very slowly but there is still some uncertainty as to where the system will move over coming days and over the coming week as well."
Mr Claassen said monsoon conditions were strengthening over the Peninsula and areas which had already received up to 100mm in recent days could be in for more heavy rainfall as the low develops.
He said a strong wind warning would be issued from tomorrow for Gulf waters, with winds in excess of 25 knots likely.
Mr Claassen warned the Gulf could also experience abnormally high tides.
"Tides in the Gulf may exceed the highest astronomical tide in the coming days due to increased monsoonal flow, particularly if the tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria develops," he said.
