THE HIGH profile heatwave and frost events in NSW have dominated the headlines in Australia’s grains industry over recent weeks, but national production estimates are still only for below average tonnages, rather than a full blown drought year situation.
That was the message from crop forecasters across the country who point to stabilizing or improving yields in southern Western Australia as leveling out some of the NSW losses.
James Maxwell, Australian Crop Forecasters, said that while the national wheat crop was likely to be below long term average of just under 25 million tonnes, many estimates were still above 20mt.
To put this in context, the drought ravaged 2006-07 national wheat crop was just 10.8mt.
He said ACF estimates were likely to come back from the 22mt put out in early September, but said southern Western Australia was looking positive.
“Certainly NSW will be severely drought impacted, we could easily see less than half the wheat production of last year, but on the flip side there has been quite a turnaround in southern WA.”
He said last year NSW produced 10.6mt of wheat, with current estimates of production between 5-5.5mt.
Speaking before Wednesday’s hot weather, he said further heat events could bring yields down further.
“In our estimates we assume average weather for the rest of the season, so if the heat continues it puts further pressure on the numbers.”
While crops in northern WA are struggling, southern farmers had another good rain of up to 60mm in parts early this week to continue the remarkable transformation in fortunes.
At the start of July, following a parched late autumn and early winter, croppers were despondent about their chances in all but the Esperance port zone.
However, WAFarmers grains section president Duncan Young said things had turned around in the south.
“Things still aren’t flash in the north, but in the south it has improved quite a bit from where it was,” Mr Young said.
“There is still a lot that can go wrong, but if things stay on track you would expect most southern districts to be average to a little better than average.”
He said concerns included waterlogging in the Esperance region and frost through the Lakes district in the south-east of the state’s wheatbelt.
“The frost will not be as bad as last year but it could still lower yields.”
Victorian crop are also in reasonable condition.
Woomelang farmer Chris Kelly said in spite of hot weather over the weekend, as part of the system that delivered the record highs in NSW, crops were growing well.
“There was enough moisture under crops in the Mallee to cope OK, the canola lost some flowers, but given it was only one day of real heat, we are generally OK.”
Brett Hosking, Victorian Farmers Federation (VFF) vice president, said another rain would be necessary to push towards above average yields, but said crops were generally in good condition.
“It was a dirty day with the heat and weather on Saturday, but crops have got through it OK.
“Most people are happy enough with where the crop is, they would just like to see another rain to really finish the season off.”
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
