A better than average start to the cropping season in many areas has boosted yield prospects for the 2016-17 winter crop by about seven per cent.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) says positive rainfall conditions are also expected to continue for major winter crops.
Crop conditions have been particularly favourable in Western Australia, which recorded above average rainfall in most parts of the cropping region in autumn.
ABARES’ latest Australian crop report tips total winter crop production to reach 42.3 million tonnes from more than 22m hectares, largely as a result of an increase in average crop yields.
Executive director, Karen Schneider, said wheat and barley production volumes were forecast to rise 5pc to 25.4m tonnes and 9m tonnes respectively.
Canola production is tipped to lift 10pc to 3.2m tonnes.
While the total area planted to wheat and barley was likely to be down this year, it was expected to be more than offset by an increase in the area planted to canola, oats and pulses.
The crop report forecasts a 19pc per cent rise in oats production to 1.6m tonnes, and an 8pc rise for chickpeas to 1.1m tonnes.
After a long, dry start to the year, above average rainfall had improved planting conditions across the country, Ms Schneider said.
“According to the latest Bureau of Meteorology three‐month rainfall outlook, winter rainfall is likely to be above average in most cropping regions,” she said.
“Total area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to increase by around 1pc to 22.3 million hectares in 2016-17.”
NSW and WA have recorded the most notable increases in planting area with each up about 100,000ha to 5.7m hectares and 8.4m hectares respectively.
After copping savage losses to frost and heat stress last sprint, Victoria’s production yields are tipped to rebound 36pc this year, while the forecast is for a 6pc lift in WA, 2pc in South Australia and Queensland and 1pc in NSW.
However, Australia’s recent summer crop is estimated to have fallen by 13pc in 2015–16 to 3.7m tonnes, mainly as a result of a fall in rice production to just 250,000 tonnes.
ABARES said grain sorghum production fell 8pc to an estimated 2m tonnes after the planted area declined from 736,000ha to about 681,000 last summer and yields were hurt by limited rainfall.
In contrast, cotton production is estimated to have risen by 10pc, after a 37pc increase in planted area.
Cotton lint volumes nudged 580,000t and cottonseed production was estimated at 819,000t.
Cropping district maximum temperatures between June and August are estimated to be average or below in most areas, and southern Australia minimum temperatures are expected to be below average, but above in the remainder of eastern Australia.
The Met Bureau has pointed to six of its eight climate models suggesting La Nina climate conditions being likely to form during the next three months, although individual climate models show a wide spread between neutral and prominent La Nina weather scenarios.
“La Nina is often, but not always associated with above average winter-spring rainfall in northern, central and eastern Australia,” ABARES crop report noted.
