Australia could be in for its first cyclone of the summer - and chances are high it will hit Queensland's north west on Christmas Eve.
But unlike the country's most notorious Christmas Eve cyclone, Tracy, which caused widespread devastation to Darwin and claimed 71 lives in 1974, Cyclone Stan, as it would be known should it form, is unlikely to hit anywhere heavily populated.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and the western Cape York Peninsula, which climbs in risk from low on Monday, to moderate on Tuesday and high on Wednesday.
Forecaster Rick Threlfall said the risk remains high on Thursday, Christmas Eve.
The bureau determines high risk to be above a 50 per cent chance of a cyclone forming.
He said it was too early to say what intensity the cyclone would hit at, should it form. It would be the first to form off Queensland since the rare winter Cyclone Raquel formed in July.
"It's not even a low pressure system yet, so this far ahead it we can't really put a category on it," he said,
"But things can rapidly intensify in the Gulf, so it's worth people making preparations for it to become a significant cyclone.
"We have seen in the past they can rapidly develop."
He said if it was to form, the cyclone would be most likely to make landfall on Thursday or early on Christmas Day.
"It certainly looks like that high chance on Wednesday is remaining a high chance into Thursday and Friday but we are a little bit uncertain as to when it will cross the coast at the moment, it's looking like Christmas Eve itself or early Christmas Day," he said.
Mr Threlfall said a monsoon trough had been developing across northern Australia at the weekend and was starting to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria in the latter part of the weekend.
"It will strengthen over the next few days, a monsoon trough leads to potential for a cyclone developing, with strengthening through the next week," he said.
"So at this stage obviously people in the northern parts of Queensland are advised to have their cyclone plans in place and to keep track of the forecast and warnings
"Its too far away to have warnings at the moment but over the next 24 hours or so we may go into cyclone watch."
Mr Threlfall said there was also potential for quite heavy post-Christmas rainfall in the state's north east this week, as far south as Mackay.
As for the rest of the state, the bureau has predicted a cooler than usual Christmas Day, with the south east tipped for a showery high of about 25 or 26 degrees.
