LIVE sheep exports are expected to remain subdued with the smaller Western Australian sheep flock limiting available numbers and some resistance expected at the current high price levels.
With total live sheep exports in 2015 estimated to be two million head, exports are well below the peak in the early 2000s, according to MLA’s Australian Sheep Industry Projections released this week.
Live sheep exports are expected to increase to 2.1 million head in 2016 and remain steady throughout the remainder of the decade.
Driven by shipments out of WA, live sheep exported during the first nine months of 2015 totalled almost 1.48 million head, a trade valued at $190 million (free on board ship).
Portland, Victoria, which exported in excess of 1.2 million head in 2000 and 2001, recorded just under 42,000 head in the first nine months of 2015.
Port Adelaide, South Australia, has recorded a similar trend, exporting 148,500 head so far this year, well below the 1.2 million and 1.33 million head recorded in 2000 and 2001, respectively.
MLA reports the decline in live sheep exports from Victoria and South Australia reflects the transition to fewer wethers within the flock composition, increased competition from the processing sector and dearer sheep prices.
While shipments out of WA are well below what they once were, Fremantle has continued to ship in excess of 1 million head annually.
WA sheep exports have primarily been driven by demand from the Middle East, with the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait amongst the largest export destinations in 2015.
Demand has flowed through to sheep prices, with live export buyers competing strongly with the processing sector to fill orders.
The WA saleyard live export wether indicator (18-24kg estimated carcase weight, 2-3 fat score) has averaged $94/head for the year-to-date, up 15pc year-on-year, but still below the $110/head average price in 2011.
MLA says live sheep exports will continue to be dependent upon market access and government policy in the Middle East.
In particular, Bahrain, as of October this year, has ceased its longstanding subsidised live sheep import program and will be a market to monitor over the next year.
For January to September this year, 96pc of live sheep exports have been destined for the Middle East.
