Why foot and mouth in Indonesia is such a threat to Australian beef

This the message from both cattle industry leaders and Federal Government biosecurity experts, who are adamant that Australia must throw everything at stopping the virus getting in.

It will be impossible for Indonesia to eradicate the disease from its herd in the short or medium term but it's the 'unmanaged' nature of their incursion - the fact the virus is spreading ahead of control measures - that poses the danger to Australia.

Dr Chris Parker, who heads up the federal government's national animal disease taskforce, said once FMD was under control in Indonesia, it presented no greater risk than any other country from which Australia has passengers arriving.

Close to 400,000 animals in Indonesia are believed to be infected now.

"Active infection is happening in an environment of animals that have never been exposed and are not vaccinated, creating rapid spread," Dr Parker explained in a webinar organised by the Victorian Farmers Federation.

Australia's population of animals was in the same boat in terms of FMD naivety, he said.

However, Australia was in a stronger position in terms of controlling the spread, with well-developed response plans where costs have been pre-agreed between industry organisations and governments, where stakeholders are clear on their roles and agreement control strategies - including a stock standstill the minute an outbreak is confirmed - have been put in place.

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Dr Parker emphasised Australia's livestock industries were dealing with two significant exotic diseases that were very different in terms of management but both had the potential to devastate trade relationships for red meat.

Many cattle industry representatives believe the hype surrounding FMD has pushed lumpy skin disease out of the spotlight, despite the fact Australia's chances are higher of seeing an incursion of LSD.

Dr Parker said the best estimates of Australia's vulnerability to both diseases comes from risk structured expert judgements completed at the University of Melbourne.

That work increased Australia's chances of a lumpy skin outbreak to 28 per cent after the Sumatra outbreak early this year, up from 8pc.

For FMD, the 9pc chance has now increased to 12pc, given the situation in Indonesia.

"So there is an increasing risk of both arriving here but they are both very different in terms of how they could come in and how they would be managed," Dr Parker said.

Lumpy skin is spread by a wide range of biting insects. It doesn't need to complete a life cycle within the insect, it can simply be transmitted mechanically at any point.

FMD is transmitted by contact with material from an infected animal - milk, semen, meat or virus particles traveling on individuals.

Federal government economists put the costs of an FMD outbreak in Australia at $80b, while initial work on lumpy skin puts the costs to just trade in the first year at between $7 and $8b.