Queensland’s average cattle slaughter rates have fallen during May compared to the same period last year, helping confirm analysts forecast for 2017 to become our lowest cattle slaughter in 20 years.
Meat and Livestock Australia’s market information manager, Ben Thomas, said May is typically the biggest months of the year for Australian cattle processing, as peak northern and southern turn-off collides.
“In fact, 94 per cent of the time May is one of the top three largest slaughter months for the year and in the majority of these occasions it’s actually in the top two,” Mr Thomas said.
Table 1 illustrates the frequency when each month featured as one of the top processing months on an annual basis from the period 2000 to 2016.
With May now drawing to a close, the average weekly Australian eastern States cattle slaughter for the month is just over 130,000 head, up 21 per cent from April, which was induced by numerous public holidays.
“Nevertheless, the average weekly kill for May makes it the peak for the year-to-date and in line with expectations,” Mr Thomas said.
Despite the recent rise, slaughter numbers are down 11pc year-on-year and 17pc from the five-year average.
“The five year average was inflated by the record cattle turn-off during 2014 and 2015, but processing in May remains subdued in comparison to those of recent years,” Mr Thomas said.
He added, while average number of Australian cattle slaughtered on a weekly basis during May has lifted significantly from the public holiday inhibited April, the numbers for May remain below last year’s levels:
- Queensland is down 9pc, averaging 66,602 head
- NSW’s down 9pc, averaging 31,406 head
- Victoria’s down 24pc, averaging 20,250 head
- South Australia is down 6pc, averaging 7,507 head
- Tasmania down 2pc, averaging 4,478 head.
While rather varied, the next most frequent month since the year 2000 for the peak annual processing to occur is November, typically the result of the final surge in north Australian cattle hitting the market before the onset of the monsoon season.
“Regardless of whether May or November eventually becomes the peak month, considering the very high probability of May being one of the largest processing months for the year, the recent brewing of numbers provides a good barometer of what the peak will be for 2017,” Mr Thomas said.
Thus, with May averaging just over 130,000 head per week, anticipations 2017 will be the lowest cattle processing year since 1996 are reinforced, according to Mr Thomas.
“This scenario will continue to assist the cattle market for the duration of the year, yet add to many of the challenges currently faced by processors and exporters alike from what is the smallest national pool of cattle in over two decades,” he said.
