DEPRESSED cereal prices, good oilseed values and solid subsoil moisture levels in key production areas have the grains industry expecting big rises in canola plantings this year.
Nick Goddard, executive director of the Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) said while his organisation has not yet put out an official forecast, he expected farmers in NSW and Western Australia in particular to be big planters of canola.
“There have been good summer and early autumn rainfall over large areas of these two states,” Mr Goddard said.
“In northern NSW, farmers are looking for a rotational break to chickpeas given they have gone very heavily with the pulses over the past two years – I would expect to see plantings rise in traditional canola areas like the Liverpool Plains.”
“Western Australian farmers are also indicating they will plant good amounts of canola within the context of their long-term rotations.
“There are definitely a number of bullish factors such as the good moisture levels and relatively buoyant pricing.”
Lachy Herbert, trading manager at Riverina Oils and Bio-Energy (ROBE) said recent rain throughout the central west in NSW had sparked interest in planting.
“Some grazing canola is going in already and with that amount of moisture, you’d imagine if there was an early break they would really go quite hard with canola,” Mr Herbert said.
“Even in the areas further to the west of the State’s cropping zone, where canola only makes up 5-10pc of the plant, it would be no surprise to see that rise to 20-30pc if there is an early break.”
Grain Growers chairman John Eastburn said he expected farmers to plant canola where it could fit in with the long-term rotation.
“The pricing outlook is not brilliant for wheat, so you would think farmers will look at alternatives, whether that is more canola or even increasing stock numbers if they are in the position to do so.”
Mr Goddard said while growers in other areas would be keen to plant canola based on values in comparison to cereals, their enthusiasm may be tempered by Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasts for a drier than average season.
“Canola is seen as a higher risk option, and I think people want to be a bit more comfortable before dedicating extra hectares to canola.”