Solid figures give a rosy outlook for hort

The document reports the gross value of horticultural production is projected to increase from $9.3 billion in 2015–16 to $10 billion in 2021–22 (in 2016–17 dollars).

However this predicted figure is slightly lower than last year's report which flagged production horticulture to reach a $10.2 billion worth by 2020-21.

A significant contributor to this growth is likely to be export market expansion.

The report made particular mention of the favourable prospects for irrigated horticultural products in the short term.

As they were in 2016's report, Asian free trade agreements (FTAs) were again trumpeted as some of the main driving factors for the horticulture's healthy export outlook.

"The real value of exports of horticultural products is expected to increase from $2.7 billion in 2015–16 to $3.3 billion in 2021–22," the report said.

"Under trade agreements with China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, import tariffs on several horticultural products have been reduced — increasing the competitiveness of Australian horticultural exports."

It did warn however that: "Horticultural imports are projected to increase as a result of growing domestic demand for processed goods."

In 2015–16 imports of processed fruit and vegetables — 78 per cent of total fruit and vegetable imports — were valued at $1.8 billion but growth in the value of imports is expected to be moderated somewhat by a lower Australian dollar.

THE gross value of Australian fruit and nut production, excluding wine grapes, is forecast to increase by 2pc to $3.7 billion in 2016–17, according to ABARES.

"Over the medium term, the gross value of fruit and nut production is projected to reach $3.9 billion in real terms by 2021–22," the report said.

"Much of the projected increase is attributable to growth in the production of high-value fruit and nuts and in the value of exports.

"Reductions in import tariffs resulting from several preferential trade agreements is projected to boost Australia’s competitiveness in key export markets."

Fruit exports are projected to rise from $1.2 billion in 2016–17 to about $1.5 billion (in 2016–17 dollars) by 2021–22, a prediction based on an assumed weaker Australian dollar, improved export opportunities and tariff reductions.

China was the largest export market for Australian fruit in 2015–16 ($190 million), ahead of Hong Kong ($173 million).

China accounted for 18pc of fruit exports by value in 2015–16, up from 9pc in 2014–15.

Indonesia, Japan, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates were also major export destinations.

Table grapes were Australia’s highest value fruit export in 2015–16, followed by oranges, mandarins and cherries, according to ABARES.

The bigger picture on fruit includes processed product. When that is taken into account, the total 2015–16 value of fruit imports was $1.3 billion, exceeding exports by more than $200 million.

"Import growth has been dominated by processed products such as canned or frozen fruit because domestic processing costs are high," the ABARES report said.

The balance to that is the fact fresh fruit exports almost tripled after 2010–11 to reach $948 million in 2015–16 and exceeded the value of fresh fruit imports by $520 million.

CONTINUING the strong horticulture outlook trend, the gross value of vegetable production is projected to reach more than $4 billion by 2021–22 because of growing domestic market requirements resulting from population growth and export demand.

The industry is estimated to have increased in 2015–16 to $3.7 billion, according to ABARES.

As with other commodities, export increases from FTAs largely drove the good results and is the basis for future success.

"The value of vegetable exports increased by 16pc to $349 million in 2015–16, reflecting growth in the volume of potato, carrot and asparagus exports," the report said.

"The value of vegetable exports is forecast to rise by 10pc to $385 million in 2016–17 and is projected to increase steadily to over $500 million in 2021–22 in real terms."

Tempering the positive vegetable outlook was the figure that fresh vegetable imports increased by 9pc to around $85 million in 2015–16.

"Garlic, mushrooms and counter-seasonal trade of asparagus made up much of this value. Most of these fresh vegetables originated in China or Mexico," the report said.

"Processed potatoes and other processed products dominate Australia’s total vegetable imports, which increased by 9pc to just over $1 billion in 2015–16."

THERE was a more sombre outlook for the value of nursery products, cut flowers and turf which is projected to remain flat in real terms at $1.3 billion to 2021–22.

A graph shows the trajectory of the nursery, flowers and turf sector as reaching a peak above $2 billion in about 2003 before declining and plateuing under $1.5 billion since about 2013.