LABOR has just as much to lose from the One Nation vote in Queensland as the conservatives, with the outlier party on track to become a major force in the state's politics.
Both Labor and the LNP have begun working to shore up vulnerable seats as the birthplace of One Nation prepares for its election. Between 11 and 13 electorates have been identified as potential gains for the Pauline Hanson-led party in a state still unconvinced by the majors and suffering economic decline.
With both parties matched at 42 seats each on the floor of the unicameral Queensland Parliament, the One Nation vote is shaping up to be instrumental in deciding the outcome of the election, due in early 2018 but widely tipped to be held in September or October next year.
CLICK HERE: Lockyer MP Ian Rickuss to retire at next Queensland election.
The minority Queensland Labor government has not been able to reverse the above-average unemployment plaguing the state, with jobless figures reaching double digits in regions where the downturn in the mining sector hit hard.
Labor has lost primary support since the 2015 election, which it won with just 37.5 per cent of first preferences, dropping to lows of 33.5 per cent in recent polls.
The LNP – which won 41 per cent of the primary vote in the last election, despite the historic one-term defeat of the Newman government – has seen its support drop to similar levels, failing to win the confidence of voters in the almost two years since the election.
That climate has left strategists of both sides concerned over the growing popularity of One Nation, with Labor pundits admitting they have as much to lose as the LNP, as working class voters in central and north Queensland become increasingly frustrated.
How each of the majors will deal with One Nation is yet to be formally decided, with both publicly demurring on how they will treat the party as they move into election mode, but privately the issue has been dominating conversations.
"Central and north Queensland are primed to listen to One Nation," one Labor source said.
"We are not giving up, or at panic stations. But the working class people, taken for granted as Labor voters, are the same voters who are looking for jobs, or counting themselves lucky to have enough work to just keep their heads above water, [and they] are angry. And we know that. We're talking north Queensland, like Thuringowa, which we lost to One Nation in 1998.
"We're talking Caboolture, parts of Ipswich, Bundaberg, Maryborough, Townsville, Rockhampton, Cairns … we're talking what should be heartland Labor seats vulnerable to a One Nation vote.
"They won 23 per cent of the vote in 1998, before we were in this climate that saw Trump elected.
"Voting One Nation doesn't mean you're racist or even agree with them on multiculturalism any more. It means you're sick of the establishment, and Queensland could be the political canary in the coal mine, even more so than WA."
Labor has responded by stepping up its visits to at-risk regions, with Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's personal popularity still seen as the party's best asset.
Ms Palaszczuk recently governed from north Queensland for a week, and her ministers have increased their visits to the regions, with "working committees" being tasked with finding solutions to economic woes.
Labor is also worried about the impact its forced introduction of compulsory preferential voting will have on the election, a move which was seen as tactically beneficial in combating a growing urban Green vote, but which now has the potential to deliver One Nation more influence.
"Even if people put One Nation at number two, they win," another Labor source said.
"It seemed like a genius move earlier this year, when it was just the Greens we were fighting off, but it could f--- us now.
"Beattie fought them off in 2001 with 'just vote one' and we can't do that. Even if they don't win all the seats, their preferences could end up screwing us in seats by handing them to the LNP. We didn't see it coming and maybe we should have."
The LNP is also considering its vulnerabilities, with traditional Nationals seats, such as Nanango, Lockyer and the Southern Downs, as well as the outback and regional country stalwart seats of Callide and Gregory, seen as in danger of falling to a One Nation vote.
Senator Hanson failed in her attempt to win the state seat of Lockyer, west of Brisbane, by just 114 votes in 2015, 18 months before her re-energised party won more than 20 per cent of the primary vote in the 2016 federal election, which delivered One Nation two Queensland Senate seats.
"She's growing in popularity and she's smarter this time around; she's not going to make the same mistakes," one LNP pundit said.
"We have to work out how to deal with that, deal with those who want to vote for her from our own constituency, while securing those votes for ourselves."
But while both parties have begun sandbagging vulnerable seats, both are waiting until new electoral boundaries and seats are finalised early next year before finalising "battle plans".
"I'd say we're alert and aware," a Labor source said.
"We're in changing times and we've got to accept that and adapt, or we'll see a Trump happen here."
