IN Australia, the party with a majority of seats in the House of Representatives forms government. In Australia, the political parties elect the prime minister instead of the voters. In the US, people vote for ‘electoral colleges’ who in turn elect the president. Generally, the electoral colleges follow the preference of the voters in their state when selecting the president.
In Australia, each electorate in the House of Representatives contains similar numbers of voters. In the US, states have different numbers of electoral votes that reflect the state’s population. There are 538 electoral votes in this year’s election. This means 270 electoral votes are needed to become president.
Because most seats elect the same party over time, the marginal seats decide the election outcome in Australia. In the US, most states vote for the same party from one election to the next. This means the ‘swing states’ – states that may change which party they elect from one election to another – often decide who becomes president. According to Real Clear Politics, there are 15 swing states with 171 electoral votes (up from 132 yesterday), although analysts disagree on the number of swing states.
What are the polls telling us?
Polls of likely voters do not deliver perfect predictions of election results. Polls have a history of missing the election outcome by up to 3 percentage points. The national poll tracker constructed by Real Clear Politics indicates Clinton’s lead is less than 2.9 points. This means the national polls are not giving a strong signal of who will win the most votes in the presidential election.
In any case, given the electoral college system and the importance of swing states, the polls in the swing states are more important than national polls. State polls in 15 swing states suggest Trump is leading in eight states with 77 electoral votes (61 yesterday). By contrast, Clinton is leading in seven swing states with 94 electoral votes (71 yesterday). However, in seven swing states the lead margin is 3pc or less. The upshot: who will win the US presidential election is very uncertain because the margins of lead in the swing states are generally small and within typical polling errors.
According to polls tracked by Real Clear Politics, the House of Representatives will most likely remain under Republican control. However, the Senate is an open question with 24 Republicans and 10 Democrats facing re‑election. Currently, Republicans control both the House of Representatives (247 of 435 seats) and the Senate (54 of 100 seats, so only five seats need to change from Republican to Democrat for the Democrats to gain control of the Senate).
When do we receive an indication of possible results?
The polling booths in the swing states start closing from noon tomorrow (November 9). We expect media organisations to start releasing the results of their ‘exit polls’ – a sample of votes from people after they have left the polling place – after the polling booths close. Similar to the polls of likely voters, exit polls have a chequered history of accurately predicting the outcome and lead margin of the vote. Media outlets are permitted to predict the election result after voting closes on the US west coast at 4pm tomorrow.
The bottom line
The latest polls indicate that the election result is more uncertain. The polls indicate firm support for both Trump and Clinton has softened. As a consequence, the number of electoral votes available in more uncertain swing states has lifted from 132 to 171. The swing states largely determine the election outcome.
- Joseph Capurso is a strategist with the Commonwealth Bank's Global Market Reseach team.
